Beyond the Sportsbook: What Prediction Markets Mean for Operators and Suppliers

Prediction-Market Licensing: Comparing Costs and Practical Requirements

First, define the event. Then, establish how participants trade. Finally, determine who settles the outcome - and under which rules.

A prediction-market platform may look straightforward to its users. Behind it sits a more complex combination of technology, liquidity, customer funds and regulatory responsibilities.

For an established sportsbook, entering this sector can mean reconsidering parts of its operating model. For a technology supplier, it can create opportunities to support new platforms, trading mechanisms and settlement systems.

The question for both is the same: which structure fits the proposed business, and what will it take to operate it?

Why the sector is attracting attention

The growing industry calendar provides one indication of the interest surrounding prediction markets.

NEXTPredict NYC took place at Convene Hudson Yards on 22–23 October 2026, bringing the sector into a dedicated conference setting. Morgan Stanley was listed as a strategic partner, while the organiser published live coverage of the discussions. That combination illustrates the interest extending beyond gaming into institutional finance and market infrastructure. NEXTPredict event overview

Institutional involvement also predates the summit. In October 2025, Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, announced an agreement to invest up to US$2 billion in Polymarket and distribute its event-driven data. The announcement highlighted the potential commercial value of prediction-market information alongside the trading activity itself. ICE’s announcement

Looking ahead, Predict 2026 is scheduled for 7–9 December at The Times Center in New York, with a programme aimed at exchanges, builders, traders, researchers and legal specialists. Predict 2026

These developments point to a broader commercial ecosystem forming around the sector. They also make the licensing discussion more relevant: growing interest does not remove the need to establish which products can be offered, to whom and under what conditions.

Prediction markets: the model comes before the licence

A prediction market allows participants to take positions on a defined future outcome. A simple binary contract might ask whether an event will occur before a specified deadline, paying a fixed amount if the condition is met and nothing otherwise.

For example, a contract purchased for €0.40 that settles at €1 produces a €0.60 gain before fees if successful. If unsuccessful, the purchaser loses the €0.40 paid. Some platforms also allow participants to trade out of positions before settlement. Contract terms, pricing information and settlement procedures are therefore central to understanding the product.

The operating model determines how responsibilities are distributed. An exchange matches participants taking opposing positions. A market maker supplies liquidity. A pooled model distributes available funds according to its published rules.

These differences affect risk exposure, contractual arrangements and operational controls. The licensing assessment should follow the actual activity, including the respective roles of the operator and its suppliers.

Nevis: a dedicated category enters the discussion

NOGA introduced its prediction-market licensing framework on 30 October 2026, with supporting materials available from 2 November. It provides distinct B2C and B2B pathways for operators and technology or service providers.

The framework considers binary and multi-outcome markets, pari-mutuel structures and market-maker arrangements. Its stated scope includes sporting, economic, political, entertainment, weather and digital-asset events, subject to individual assessment.

Its requirements address manipulation, conflicts of interest, participant funds, reliable outcome data and settlement disputes. These are practical concerns: a platform must explain who determines the result and how a disputed outcome will be handled. NOGA’s official announcement

Comparing regulatory fees and funding requirements

Nevis’s published initial fee is €18,000 for either a B2C or B2B prediction-market licence, with an €18,000 annual renewal fee. These are separate categories, rather than a combined licence. Corporate establishment, professional services, compliance resources and operational infrastructure are additional. NOGA’s fee schedule

In Malta, a qualifying B2C Type 3 model involves a €5,000 application fee, a €25,000 annual licence fee and €40,000 minimum paid-up share capital. Those specified fees and capital together represent €70,000, before compliance contributions and implementation expenses.

Type 3 includes betting exchanges and certain commission-based games. A proposed prediction-market product requires assessment before this route can be treated as suitable.

Malta’s Type 3 compliance contribution normally carries a €25,000 minimum, although first-year provisions and qualifying start-up relief can affect the amount payable. MGA contribution guidance

In Estonia, where the proposed model qualifies under the toto regime, the published requirements include €130,000 minimum share capital, a €31,960 activity-licence application fee and a €3,200 operating-permit application fee. This represents €165,160 in specified capital and fees, before professional, technical and operating costs. Estonian Tax and Customs Board

Share capital is placed into the company and remains subject to the applicable requirements; it is not a licensing charge paid to the authority. These figures therefore illustrate different funding commitments rather than equivalent all-inclusive launch prices.

On the published regulatory fees compared here, Nevis’s dedicated category is one of the more financially attractive options to assess. Its suitability still depends on the product, target markets and wider operating requirements.

A complete budget must address technology, staffing, compliance, liquidity, customer-fund safeguards, professional support and applicable taxes.

Settlement and commercial acceptance need attention early

A market based on an economic announcement needs an identified data source and rules for corrections or delayed publication. A sports-related market needs precise terms for postponement or abandonment.

The platform must also determine how disputes are raised, who reviews them and how decisions are communicated. These choices should inform the product design, supplier agreements and customer documentation before launch.

Banks, payment providers and technology partners also need to understand the proposed activities, customer markets and flow of funds. Their requirements should inform the structure before major contracts are signed.

NOGA expressly states that its authorisation remains subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of the jurisdictions served. A Nevis licence does not create unrestricted international market access.

Choose the route around the business

At SORTED., our role as an independent licensing brokerage and advisory firm is to compare suitable routes against the client’s actual business model.

Nevis’s dedicated framework is a relevant addition to that assessment. Malta, Estonia or another jurisdiction may be more appropriate for a different project, depending on its products, customers, funding and commercial objectives.

For an existing operator or supplier, the starting point may be a review of current authorisations and proposed activities. For a new venture, it should be a clear definition of the product and the resources needed to operate it.

Conferences and investment announcements demonstrate the attention prediction markets are receiving. Turning that attention into a sustainable business requires the market rules, technology, funding and licensing structure to work together.

Further information about SORTED.’s gaming licensing services

By Martin Haemmer, CEO, SORTED.